2026-27 NFL Odds: Why Caleb Williams is a Nightmare for Sportsbooks

Caleb Williams took a major leap in his second NFL season, thriving during his first year under head coach Ben Johnson. Williams threw for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while leading the Chicago Bears to an 11-6 record, an NFC North title and their first playoff win since 2011. He also established himself as one of the NFL’s most clutch quarterbacks, leading the league with seven game-winning drives in 2025 (tied with Bo Nix). That included six regular-season comebacks and a dramatic wild-card win over the Green Bay Packers. And because of that breakout, bettors are already piling in on the former No. 1 overall pick heading into Year 3. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. According to BetMGM NFL insights, Williams has emerged as the biggest liability in the MVP market, drawing 11.8% of all tickets and 13.5% of the total handle. The former Heisman Trophy winner currently sits at +1400, tied with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford for the eighth-best odds. He still trails a loaded group at the top, including Josh Allen (+550), Lamar Jackson (+650) and Patrick Mahomes (+1000), along with Justin Herbert (+1000), Joe Burrow (+1000), Drake Maye (+1100) and Dak Prescott (+1300). On a recent episode of “The Herd,” Colin Cowherd echoed what many bettors are already signaling. “To me, Caleb Williams is the No. 1 preseason MVP, Josh Allen at No. 2,” Cowherd said. “A lot of it is, and nothing against Joe Brady, but he’s not Ben Johnson. So I think he (Caleb) should be the favorite. Some guys are more fun to watch and easier to vote for.” Despite the public heavily backing Williams, history tells a different story, considering no quarterback has ever won MVP in their third NFL season. As the reigning 2025 NFC North champions, the Bears will face first-place teams from the other NFC divisions. Chicago enters 2026 with the sixth-hardest strength of schedule in the entire NFL. At age 24, Williams looks to become the youngest MVP since Jackson back in 2019.​Public money is flooding in on Caleb Williams for MVP, turning the Chicago QB into one of the sportsbook’s biggest liabilities.