How Shohei Ohtani, ‘Just Scratching The Surface,’ Has Adapted In Cy Young Search

As Shohei Ohtani fired six scoreless innings Wednesday to drop his ERA on the year to 0.74, the third-lowest mark through the first 10 starts of a season in MLB history, he continued to feature a new element to his game. And it’s one that might be necessary as the two-way star tries to capture his first ever Cy Young Award in a year that features a slew of formidable contenders for MLB’s top pitching honor. While Ohtani’s strikeout rate is down from his career norms, his 51.7% groundball rate is the highest of his career — up more than 10% from last year and 6% from his previous career high —  and the fourth-highest among all starters who’ve thrown at least 60 innings this year. On Wednesday in Arizona, he began his start by inducing three straight groundouts in a spotless first inning and ended it with a double-play grounder from Corbin Carroll to escape a sixth-inning threat. Ohtani struck out six and got eight groundouts on the night while needing just 89 pitches through six innings. His ability to keep the ball on the ground has played an important role in his success, helping him limit slug — he has allowed a home run in just one of his 10 appearances this year — and consistently go deep into games, which he’ll need to do if he wants any chance of winning a Cy Young. The Dodgers continue riding with a six-man rotation, even with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow down, in part to manage Ohtani’s innings and workload. Unlike other Cy Young contenders, Ohtani can’t afford even the occasional clunker. He’s pitching like he knows it, going at least six innings in all but one of his 10 starts, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his 10 starts and holding opponents to an MLB-low .142 batting average. Since the earned run became an official stat, Jacob deGrom (0.56 ERA, 2021) and Juan Marichal (0.59 ERA, 1966) are the only pitchers with a lower ERA through their first 10 starts of a season than Ohtani. “I think a lot of starting pitchers, you feel your way into a game and you give up a couple early and you bear down,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. “But I’ve noticed with Shohei, every run is a premium. He’s literally trying to throw a shutout every time he goes out there, where I don’t know if every starter has that mindset.” Since the mound was lowered in 1969, only 28 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title have finished a season with an ERA under 2.00. That number drops to 25 pitchers if you eliminate the shortened 2020 season. The lowest ERA in that time belongs to Dwight Gooden, who had a 1.53 ERA in 1985. Ohtani’s ERA, after holding his opponent scoreless in half of his 10 starts this year, is half of Gooden’s mark (0.74). But, as of Thursday, Ohtani is just shy of qualifying for the ERA title. He’s tied for 74th in innings pitched and currently on pace to throw 159 innings. Over the last 20 years, the fewest number of innings pitched by a Cy Young starter over the course of a full season is 167 by Corbin Burnes. Ohtani will have his work cut out for him to reach that number. And in a year in which the Phillies’ Christopher Sánchez just racked up 50.2 consecutive scoreless innings and the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski is running a strikeout rate near 40%, Ohtani must maintain a sizable ERA lead and routinely rack up starts of six and seven innings if he hopes to win MLB’s top pitching honor. Keeping the ball on the ground, the way he has to this point, will help. Ohtani’s arsenal hasn’t changed dramatically to allow him to post the highest groundball rate and lowest home-run rate of his career. While he has incorporated more of his curveball and splitter this year, he still leans primarily on his four-seamer and sweeper — two of the best pitches in baseball — throwing them a combined 75.3% of the time. Rather, Dodgers assistant pitching coach Connor McGuiness believes that Ohtani’s elevated ground-ball rate is mostly the result of the pitcher’s enhanced ability to read the game, understand opponents’ tendencies and mess with a hitter’s timing by varying his delivery and velocity. Sometimes, that can help him avoid barrels and get harmless contact to end an at-bat quickly. Other times — like when he slowed his mechanics down to end an 11-pitch at-bat against Francisco Lindor in April — it can help him get a strikeout when he needs one. “He’s one of the best self-coaches we have,” McGuiness told me last week. “I think he’s kind of just found a consistent delivery and throw right now. He’s tapped into a crazy amount of power, and he’s just avoiding the fat part of the plate.” Over his last four starts, Ohtani has surrendered just nine hits and one run — and that’s while fighting his command through a large portion of that stretch. Wednesday’s start, in which he allowed just one free pass, represented a step in the right direction. He allowed three baserunners as a pitcher and reached base five times as a hitter, getting his batting average up above .300 for the first time since Opening Day. After a slow start to the year offensively, he now has the lowest ERA in MLB as a pitcher and the third-highest OPS in the National League as a hitter. “He’s the best player that’s ever walked this earth,” said catcher Will Smith. This year, he might also be the best pitcher, too. “When Shohei says he’s going to go do something, we all believe it,” McGuiness told me. “Like, he’s probably going to go do it. It is unbelievable. No words can really describe what he’s accomplishing right now, and honestly I think we’re just scratching the surface on the best version of him, which is even scarier to think about.”​Shohei Ohtani won’t have the innings of other contenders, but by keeping the ball on the ground, limiting slug and routinely going deep into games, he’s giving himself a Cy Young chance.