College Football Week 4 Betting Report: Public Still High On Indiana & Cignetti

When college football Week 4 odds hit betting boards across the country Sunday, it was perhaps a bit surprising to see No. 21 Florida as a 2.5-point home favorite over No. 4 Ole Miss. More surprising, the Gators quickly moved to -3 and -3.5. “But the public is disagreeing with that sentiment,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said, noting plenty of interest in the fourth-ranked Rebels. Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that matchup and more in college football Week 4 betting. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Ole Miss is coming off a huge home win in Week 3. The Rebels blew all of a 24-7 first-half lead, then barely held on for a 32-24 victory as 3-point home underdogs vs. LSU. Meanwhile, Florida gave away most of a 17-point, fourth-quarter edge at Auburn, winning 44-39 as a 2.5-point favorite. Ole Miss certainly had the more impressive win. But this week, the combination of Florida at home and Rebels’ running back Kewan Lacey (shoulder) being questionable convinced Caesars to open the Gators -2.5. Florida moved to -3 in short order and has toggled between -3/-3.5 multiple times. On Wednesday night, it’s Gators -3.5 (-102) for a 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff. “Despite that line movement, it’s a little reverse action. Most of the action we’ve seen is on Ole Miss,” Feazel said. Florida and Ole Miss are both 3-0 straight up (SU) and 2-1 against the spread (ATS). On Friday night, it’s a battle of Big Ten unbeatens. However, one is just a little more respected by oddsmakers than the other. And by a little, I mean a lot. No. 5 Indiana, the defending national champion, is a 21-point home favorite vs. Northwestern (2-0 SU and ATS). That’s actually down from Caesars’ opener of Hoosiers -22.5, perhaps in part because Indiana (3-0 SU/0-3 ATS) hasn’t covered this season. Last year, Indiana went a perfect 16-0 SU/10-6 ATS and covered in three of its four College Football Playoff victories. But the public isn’t going to lay off a team that hasn’t lost since the first round of the 2024-25 CFP. “It’s really what we’re expecting so far, mostly Indiana action,” Feazel said, while noting he anticipates plenty more betting for this 8 p.m. ET kick on FOX. “This game should drive a ton of action, despite it not appearing to be very competitive. “People like Indiana and they like Curt Cignetti. The need here is gonna be for Northwestern to hang in there and keep it a lower-scoring game.” Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX is even more of a mismatch, by oddsmakers’ estimates. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Ohio State is a 26.5-point home favorite vs. Illinois, down slightly from a -27.5 opener. Even with that big number, it’s all Buckeyes so far at DraftKings, with 82% of spread bets/77% of spread money on Ohio State. College football betting expert Paul Stone got there last week on Louisville -1.5, as the host Cardinals topped SMU 41-31. This week, he’s most intrigued by a Big 12 matchup: Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia, at 7 p.m. ET Saturday on FS1. Oklahoma State (2-1 SU and ATS) shockingly lost at Tulsa in Week 1 but even more shockingly beat visiting Oregon in Week 2. Still, Stone is more impressed by West Virginia’s 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS start. After struggling to a 4-8 record last season, West Virginia was a consensus pick to again finish in the bottom half of the Big 12 this season. However, the Mountaineers are off to their first 3-0 start since 2018, largely due to the play of quarterback Michael Hawkins. The transfer from Oklahoma found a home in Rich Rodriguez’s offense, which emphasizes a mobile quarterback who can use his legs in the running game. Hawkins accounted for five touchdowns (three rushing, two passing) in West Virginia’s 38-27 neutral-site victory over No. 25 Virginia last week. Stone likes the Mountaineers as 1.5-point home favorites vs. Oklahoma State. “Oklahoma State turned a lot of heads with its victory over Oregon a couple of weeks ago,” Stone said. “But I look for Hawkins & Co. to get the job done in Morgantown. I think West Virginia wins by a field goal or more.” It’s just a massive Saturday in the SEC. Ahead of Ole Miss-Florida, top-ranked Texas meets Tennessee at noon ET. The Longhorns (3-0 SU/1-2 ATS) have the signature win of the season so far, with their 21-point rally to beat Ohio State 24-23 in Week 2. Meanwhile, The Vols (3-0 SU/1-2 ATS) face their stiffest test by far, having been double-digit favorites in their first three outings. Caesars Sports opened Texas as a 5-point favorite, and interestingly, the line quickly tumbled to -3.5. But it rebounded nearly as quickly, returning to Texas -5.5 by Monday, with Feazel noting sharp play on the Longhorns -4.5. However, by Wednesday night, the Longhorns fell back to -4 once again. “Some wild movement thus far for this SEC matchup,” Feazel said. “We expect to see some larger Texas wagers as we get closer to Saturday’s kickoff. This should be our biggest-action game of the early kickoffs.” Also in the SEC, No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1 SU and ATS) visits No. 10 LSU (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS) at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. The Aggies are coming off a huge upset loss to Kentucky, 31-21 as 16.5-point home favorites. And as noted above, the Tigers fell at Ole Miss 32-24. But Caesars’ risk room rightly deemed the Tigers’ setback a much more quality loss than A&M’s, and the point spread shows it. “Texas A&M has been very inconsistent and is desperate for a win. But our look-ahead line [last week] was LSU -5.5, and it’s moved up to LSU -8.5,” Feazel said. “It’s not lopsided quite yet. But we’re gonna have more coming in on LSU. “We’re gonna need Texas A&M to come through and keep this close.” Saturday brings a couple key Big Ten matchups, as well: No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 18 Michigan at 3:30 p.m. ET, and No. 20 Oregon vs. No.  12 USC at 7:30 p.m. ET. Michigan (3-0 SU/2-1 ATS) is pretty fortunate to be unbeaten at this point. Still, Caesars opened the Wolverines -4.5 vs. the Hawkeyes (3-0 SU/2-1 ATS), and the line was Michigan -5.5 on Wednesday night. The more interesting market might be the total, which is a tidy 38.5. That matches the opening number, down from the 39.5 high Sunday but up from the 37.5 low Monday. “It’s a classic Big Ten matchup. We anticipate a low-scoring game, with this being one of the lowest totals on the board,” Feazel said. “We’re seeing two-way action on the total and a little more action on Iowa. “On paper, Michigan probably shouldn’t be undefeated. Come game time, I think we’ll need Michigan to win and not cover.” Oregon opened as a 2.5-point road favorite vs. USC, and the Ducks advanced to -3 by Monday. “This Oregon team is desperate after the loss to Oklahoma State,” Feazel said. “It’s mostly Oregon money coming in, on the spread and the moneyline.” So Caesars could well be rooting for USC at home. But that’s not the biggest concern in a game with a total of 62.5. “We’re seeing a lot of Over money, which is not a surprise. The sharper side is on the Under,” Feazel said. “With these two high-flying offenses, the bigger need is gonna be a lower-scoring game.” Feazel noted above that some major wagers are expected to land on Texas. But Tennessee took the first big play on Saturday’s SEC clash in Knoxville. A customer put $76,900 on Vols moneyline +175. If Tennessee pulls the outright upset, then the bettor banks $134,575 profit, for a total payout of $211,475.​The public is still high on the Hoosiers but the books need Northwestern. Patrick Everson breaks down the college football Week 4 action.