Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica’s College Football Week 4 Expert Picks, Best Bets

Last week in this spot, we hit .500, but we’re still winning overall on the season. Yes, I know it’s only Week 4 in college football, but we gotta count those victories whenever we can. Let’s see how this week shakes out. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Last Week: 2-2Season: 12-6 The Chippewas are one of the more run-heavy, slowest-paced teams out there. I can’t imagine that they will have much success against the Miami defense and I can’t imagine they get more than, say, four drives in the first half. Also, I think Miami, with the injury concerns the Hurricanes have, will have a very run-heavy attack. I’ll take my chances that the Chips don’t score in the first half. I’ll happily pay the tax to lock in the key number of 17. I can’t see the Iowa offense doing much here. The Hawkeyes couldn’t crack 300 yards or 5.0 YPP vs. Iowa State and I see a similar fate at the Big House. USC takes the ball if the Trojans win the toss and we know Oregon will defer if the Ducks win the toss. So we know we’ll get the opening drive of the game and it’s not like the Oregon D has been great so far. If SC scores on the opening drive, we should have a winner. Texas A&M has the look of a team which lost nearly everything up front on both sides of the ball. And as a result, on the offensive side of things, QB Marcel Reed is having a tough time getting the ball downfield. Despite losing the showdown in Oxford last week and losing a couple of key pieces to injury, I like the spot for LSU here. Going 0-2 in SEC play isn’t a great thing for the loser, but I do think the gravity of the situation will result in an effort from LSU like we saw against Clemson. Curt Cignetti was testy this week, especially in his defense of Josh Hoover. That probably means bad things for the Purple Cats. BEAR BYTES Last year at this time, Penn State, LSU, Florida State and Illinois were all undefeated and ranked in the top 10. None finished ranked and two of those teams fired their head coach. In the last 35 years, there have been only four top-five teams that were underdogs vs. a team outside the top 20, with the last being Oregon in 2021 at Utah. All four top-five teams lost outright and only one of the four games was decided by fewer than 18 points. The other three games besides Oregon’s loss at Utah were 2015 Utah at USC, 2007 Wisconsin at Illinois and 1993 Ohio State at Michigan. Seven straight and 12 of the last 15 regular season games Iowa has played against a ranked team have gone Under the total. This is just the fourth time since 2021 Hawaii is favored on the road. The Rainbow Warriors lost the prior three games by 45, 21 and 14 points. Oklahoma has covered seven of its last eight regular-season games against ranked teams, including all four instances in which the Sooners were ‘dogs. Oklahoma has three TDs in 21 offensive drives over the last two games vs. Michigan and New Mexico. Matt Rhule is 4-10 on the road as Nebraska’s head coach. This is just the fourth time since 2013 that No. 1 is favored by fewer than seven points in a regular season game. In the previous three instances, No. 1 lost outright, including Texas as a 4.5-point favorite against Georgia in 2024. Lincoln Riley is 5-15 in his last 20 games vs. ranked opponents and as an underdog, is 4-12 against ranked opponents (2-8 at USC). Oregon hasn’t had two losses by the end of September since 2016 when the Ducks finished 4-8. Mississippi State looks to open 4-0 for the second straight year. After a 4-0 start last year, the Bulldogs lost eight of their final nine games and finished 5-8. Missouri has lost seven straight games against ranked teams. Just three were decided by fewer than 11 points. Since the start of 2024, Florida State is 8-19. Its wins have come against New Mexico State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Kent State, East Texas A&M, Alabama, Charleston Southern and Cal. The Noles are 0-4 vs. Florida and Miami, losing by a combined score of 135-68. Clemson is 6-8 in its last 14 games vs. Power 4 opposition.​”The Bear” is back with his expert picks and best bets. Find out how he’s wagering on Week 4 of the college football season.